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thoughtsnips
Thursday, May 29, 2003
 
Re: Paki stance on J&K :

There are two things involved here: a) Whether Pak is considering refocussing its practical foreign policy away from K-jihad as a tactical or even strategic imperative (b) Whether Pak is growing out of its K-obsession.

The first is bound to be temporary, and that is exactly what they might be contemplating. Anyone familiar with the 3 pillars on which Pak stands (AAA) knows better than to attribute free and efficient cause to Pakistan's moral maxims. Trial balloons such as these are floated on tactical or strategic impulses, and not as a result of a fundamental change of character.

In spite of expatriate savings, financial aid bakhseesh and debt relief having poured in post-9/11, their economy is still in a shambles (tho the figures seem pretty because the $ is sliding). Most importantly, Pak is an auto-rickshaw who's 3rd wheel is wobbling dangerously (assuming Allah is patient even with baby-killers). Both America (and China) are not as solidly behind it as before, for a variety of reasons. Their support has become conditional, more than ever before.

It is in response to these conditionalities that Pak is acting. Of course, let's give credit to the pressure that India has been applying of late. Op Sarp Vinash is the latest.

If I am wrong in this assessment, then it is upto them to undertake confidence-building measures.

The US will not give up its 'stalwart ally' so easily. This peace-negotiation is a temporizing measure, before Pak gets some lift again, courtesy Uncle. This is the most troubling aspect from India's POV.

As a rule of thumb: anyone who acts against the ultimate goal of the dismemberment of Pakistan is doing so against India's fundamental interests.

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