Monday, January 26, 2004
Speculating on the Futures
Hmm... so, folks are dropping out of teh race now. And their folks ought to move on. Let's try to speculate on who goes where, if their candidate drops out.
Carol Mosley Braun: hmmm... ummm..... were there any?
Gephardt: I would venture to say that most of them would gravitate towards Edwards. Gephardt's support base came mostly from the labor, and given Edwards' background (his father was a mill worker), and the fact that he highlights it in every speech, I would expect them to go his way. Interestingly, however, a minority of them might go the Kerry way, quoting his experience, which is the other thing Gephardt had.
Kucinich: Many of them would go to Dean. But, Edwards might pick up some ppl who are attracted to Kucinich's humble origins.
Al Sharpton: Well, most of the Rev's support is from the south. And I expect every southern state to solidly back eitehr Edwards or Clark. I have a feeling Clark would be able to attract slightly more Sharpton supporters than Edwards.
Dean's: I would say mostly to Clark and some to Edwards. Ironically, both
Wes Clark: I would say that Kerry and Edwards will have to fight it out. A small anti-war faction might go to Dean. But given that Dean's anti-war campaign is older than Clark's, and the General's folks were not in it, I would expect this segment to be pretty small.
Edwards: Oh boy, this is going to be hard. Not the least because I think Edwards and Kerry have a very good chance of making it to the last round. When, and if, it comes to a one-to-one between the two, it might not matter anymore. But, if Edwards gets crushed before that, most of his folks will gravitate towards Clark.
Kerry: Not to Dean.
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