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thoughtsnips
Monday, January 26, 2004
 
Speculating on the Futures - II

I expect a repeat of Iowa in New Hampshire on Tuesday - Kerry tops, Edwards comes second with either Clark or Dean in the third slot, with the other in the fourth place. The difference would be that the second, third and fourth slots would be bunched up closer, adn who knows, the winner might not be too far ahead either.

The real threat for Kerry comes after New Hampshire. I expect Edwards to move in for the kill in South Carolina and Oklahoma. If Kerry is not able to win the south, a lot of democrats will have a rethink. And Kerry might find the path all uphill after that. If that happens, Edwards could turn out to be the One. That scenario would also help Clark, albeit to a weaker extent. If Kerry however, manages to show a decent performance in the South, he could be the nominee, with Edwards taking the Veep nomination.

Asking Edwards would be a real smart move if Kerry wins, and Edwards comes second. He could claim to be the uniter (contrasting with Bush, the great divider), and this would be a great salve for the bruises that dems are taking in the course of this primary campaign, which might go all the way to the convention.

Kerry camp approached Edwards with this idea BD (before Dean). Edwards did not take the bait, which is very understandable. But if it comes down to it, given that he is not contesting his senate seat, he will take a VP nomination instead of completely sitting it out.

One thing is for certain... unless I turn out to be way off the mark, and he ends up winning NH, Dean is a goner.

R

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