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thoughtsnips
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
 
Wisconsin... phew!

Well, what do you know! Almost everyone I talked to (who want Dems to win) are happy that the coronation was not tonite. There are two ways of looking at it :

* People are internalizing the fact that Bush is beatable, afterall, and the panic that so helped Kerry is subsiding. People are ready to look at other choices, and Edwards looks like a good guy.
* People are still afraid that Bush will win, and want to be absolutely sure their candidate has it in him. And it's way too early to conclusively decide that Kerry is that man. So, they are uncertain.

It could even be a mixture of both these sentiments.

Another interesting analysis to make, as I have been saying for some time now, is how votes get transferred from candidates who have dropped out. In the case of WI, this is important because the voters had a week since the last candidate, Gen.Clark, dropped out.

Interestingly, the exit poll says that a full 75% support for Edwards came from last minute fence sitters. This strongly suggests that WI voters wanted this contest to go to Super Tuesday. It also suggests that contrary to popular belief, Edwards might be able to pick up more independents and moderates in November than Kerry.

--R

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