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thoughtsnips
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
 
Our Guesstimates of how parties will fare

Rachit and I tried to guess (very roughly), what each party would get in each state. These numbers are based on our gut instincts, precedents and the exit poll numbers. Let's see who is closer to the reality.

Some analysis:
1. Rachit predicts a very evenly split Parliament, with Congress emerging as the most important player - any government in this scenario has to have Congress supporting it (if not led by it). I still think NDA has more chances.
2. Rachit and I differ on the most important state - UP. I think the three way split in anti-NDA votes, combined with some movement of Muslim votes to Congress would strengthen BJP. Rachit thinks NDA will sink further in the state. I think he is also ignoring the Kalyan Singh factor. The one thing we agree on is that BSP would fare well.
3. While I have predicted a near sweep for NDA in Rajasthan, Rachit thinks it will be more 50-50.
4. Surprisingly, we agree that NDA will not be drubbed completely in TN.
5. Congress+RJD would win two-thirds of Bihar's seats, according to Rachit. I think it will be more 50-50.
6. We decided to list the AI Trinamool Congress as Others2 in WB, but NDA in Meghalaya (accounted under NE states).


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