Tuesday, April 27, 2004
Re: Our Guesstimates of how parties will fare
One more thing: contrary to what he thinks, if Rachit's scenario (God Forbid!!) might give us a stabler govt than what I have predicted. Surprised? Look at where the ruling alliance would draw its support from: mostly from AP, Bihar, TN, Maharashtra, Kerala, WB and UP.
Among these, AP will be Congress' own strength.
In UP, Congress's ally would be former-opponents, but who is supporting Congress for the fear of the BJP allying with the other "Other".
In WB and Kerala, the Congress and Left will get most seats - and every one of them will be in ruling coalition's column.
You can expect RJD, DMK and the Left not to keep threatening to pull down the govt (while giving enuf headaches).
The wildcards would then be NCP, MDMK, and maybe, BSP. That is much better than the ten-fifteen parties that could pull down a BJP dispensation!!
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