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thoughtsnips
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
 
Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
This site predicts that Kerry-Bush contest is not even close, as widely believed. Or, so it seems at the first glance. But look closer: Bush has a lot many more votes in the "Barely Bush" column than does Kerry in barely Kerry column. Of the ties, Maine might not matter (it mostly would split its votes 3-1). Pennsylvania and Florida have both been listed as Bushlands (though under 'barely' category). Ultimately, this is the nightmare scenario for the Kerry camp.

This is understandable though, since a lot of these numbers are taken after the bump in GOP support after the convention showed up in the polls. Add to it the anniversary of Sept 11, and you have red splashed all over the map, so much so, you have Ohio listed as strong Bush state - it is, at best, a barely Bush state according to most (incl Rasmussen) polls.

When the bump slides (as it is bound to - it is just too steep to sustain), you will see more whites and blues popping up. Till then, it's okay if the map looks like a Bush budget.

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