Tuesday, October 19, 2004
The Water States Strategy
He wins all the west coast states (it does not look very far fetched), and all of New England and Mid Atlantic states. Of these, only ones that he needs to worry about even a little are New Hampshire, Maine and Pennsylvania - but all the latest polls show him leading in those places rather comfortably.
He also takes Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota - where he has been leading quite comfortably, and the swing states of Wisconsin and Ohio. With Hawaii, that would make 272 electoral votes - even if Bush takes all the other states, including Florida, and even if Maine awards one vote to Bush, Kerry would still triumph. Of course, non-water states like New Mexico or Arkansas (a long shot) would be an extra.
The crux of the strategy? O-H-I-O.
PS: But yeah, you could swap Ohio and Florida in the above discussion, and the whole thing stands. But I think there is a much bigger chance of Kerry winning OH than FL.
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