Tuesday, October 19, 2004
The Water States Strategy

Originally uploaded by kmramki.
A study after the 2000 elections showed that generally, areas near water bodies tended to vote Democrat. Not just coastal states - we are talking about counties adjoining big rivers like Mississippi even in hard Red states. Keeping that in mind, here is a scenario where Kerry would be the President.

He wins all the west coast states (it does not look very far fetched), and all of New England and Mid Atlantic states. Of these, only ones that he needs to worry about even a little are New Hampshire, Maine and Pennsylvania - but all the latest polls show him leading in those places rather comfortably.

He also takes Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota - where he has been leading quite comfortably, and the swing states of Wisconsin and Ohio. With Hawaii, that would make 272 electoral votes - even if Bush takes all the other states, including Florida, and even if Maine awards one vote to Bush, Kerry would still triumph. Of course, non-water states like New Mexico or Arkansas (a long shot) would be an extra.

The crux of the strategy? O-H-I-O.

PS: But yeah, you could swap Ohio and Florida in the above discussion, and the whole thing stands. But I think there is a much bigger chance of Kerry winning OH than FL.

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